Abaad Center Strategic Assessment: STC Control of Eastern Yemen Represents a Geopolitical Earthquake within the UAE’s “String of Pearls” Strategy and the Abraham Accords Framework
As part of its ongoing political research on developments in Yemen, the Abaad Center for Studies and Research released a strategic assessment in December examining recent shifts in the country’s east. The assessment comprises two situational analyses and a dedicated strategic file addressing the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council’s (STC) moves to seize control of Hadramout and Al-Mahra—two governorates long regarded as stable and distant from the main theaters of war dominated by the Houthi movement, which has controlled the capital, Sanaa, since September 2014.
A Geopolitical Earthquake
Abaad assessment describes the STC’s takeover of Hadramout and Al-Mahra as a “geopolitical earthquake” that fundamentally reshapes the regional security architecture in the southern Arabian Peninsula. According to the report, these developments have ended an era of “fragile balance,” transforming Saudi Arabia’s strategic depth and Oman’s vital sphere into volatile frontlines—referred to as “the borders of hell.”
Hadramout and Al-Mahra—both bordering Saudi Arabia and Oman—along with Shabwa and the Socotra Archipelago, which the STC seized with Emirati backing between 2018 and 2019, form a resource-rich eastern region of major economic and military significance. These governorates, together with Marib and the sea port of Mocha, are of particular interest to the UAE due to oil fields in the former and proximity to the Bab al-Mandab Strait in the latter, sustaining ongoing concerns among the STC’s partners within Yemen’s internationally recognized government over a repeat of earlier developments.
Emirati Ambitions
The first Abaad situational assessment, published on 2 December—just hours before the STC announced its takeover of Hadramout and Al-Mahra—was titled “Hadramout: Drivers and Implications of Military Escalation Between the STC and Tribal Forces.” It examined local and regional actors and the causes behind the escalation, outlining three scenarios. The second scenario—armed confrontation—ultimately materialized, despite being assessed as less likely. Abaad attributed this outcome to several indicators, including the STC’s escalating rhetoric, the tribes’ determination to defend their territory, and an Emirati inclination linked to parallel developments on the opposite shore of the Red Sea, particularly in Sudan.
Imposing a Fait Accompli by Military Force
The second Abaad study, released on 14 December after the STC had consolidated control, was titled “Between Escalation and Containment: The Future of Hadramout and Al-Mahra after the STC Takeover.” It noted explicit rejection of the STC’s military moves by both the President of Yemen’s Presidential Leadership Council and Saudi Arabia. The study outlined three scenarios: continued STC control and the imposition of a fait accompli by force; a negotiated withdrawal agreed between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi; or a Saudi-backed withdrawal from areas controlled by UAE-backed forces in Aden and Lahj, with a focus on border zones and key crossings.
Dynamics Threatening Yemeni Sovereignty and Regional Security
The third file, Abaad’s exclusive strategic study titled “Risks and Scenarios of STC-Induced Chaos in Eastern Yemen: The UAE Redraws Influence Maps in the Southern Arabian Peninsula,” warned that the STC’s success in asserting control over what it termed “Third Yemen” goes beyond military dominance. It grants control over the country’s economic lifelines, placing the internationally recognized government at risk of complete bankruptcy and stripping it of its remaining instruments of sovereignty.
According to the report, these dynamics pose “unprecedented existential security challenges” for neighboring Gulf States. Saudi Arabia faces dangerous exposure along its southern flank, threatening its traditional tribal influence in favor of organized forces backed by the UAE and aligned with Israel. Oman, meanwhile, risks geopolitical encirclement by an expanding belt of influence stretching from its coastline to its western borders—reviving long-standing concerns and increasing the likelihood that Al-Mahra could become a theater for a proxy war of attrition.
The study emphasized that the developments were “not merely a transient tactical military move, but a complete collapse of Yemen’s traditional security arrangements,” warning that they could generate a political and security vacuum conducive to the resurgence of extremist groups and provide the Houthis with opportunities for battlefield breakthroughs.
The “String of Pearls” Strategy and the Abraham Accords
Abaad strategic study characterized the situation in eastern Yemen as the culmination of the UAE’s “String of Pearls” maritime influence strategy. Through indirect control, Abu Dhabi has secured a chain of ports and strategic sites stretching from Mocha in the west, through Aden and Mukalla, to Nishtun port in the Eastern Yemen.
The assessment noted that this arc grants the UAE decisive leverage over international shipping lanes and energy supplies in the Arabian Sea and Gulf of Aden, integrating these ports with its own commercial hubs and preventing the emergence of competing routes beyond its control.
Moreover, the report argued that the UAE is leveraging this expansion to engineer a de facto “southern State” with viable economic and military foundations aligned with its political decision-making. This, it said, positions Abu Dhabi as an indispensable “gatekeeper” in any future security arrangements for the Arabian Peninsula, while granting its ally—the STC—significant negotiating power to reshape forthcoming political settlements. The report warned that this trajectory could pave the way for new regional alignments under the Abraham Accords framework, potentially encircling Saudi Arabia from the south.
The Houthis: The Strategic Beneficiary
The assessment warned that the emerging security vacuum and intra-camp rivalries among the Houthis’ adversaries present the group with a “golden opportunity” and unearned gains. As factions aligned with the internationally recognized government remain consumed by power struggles and competition over resources in the south and east, the Houthis are exploiting fragmentation to reinforce their domestic narrative that the coalition intervened to divide Yemen and plunder its wealth—bolstering their claim to political legitimacy under the banner of “defending national sovereignty.”
Abaad further warned that the collapse of the First Military Region in Wadi Hadramout exposes Marib’s strategic rear, leaving the governorate nearly isolated and vulnerable.
Between Vacuum and Chaos
The strategic assessment outlines five detailed scenarios for the region’s trajectory between 2025 and 2030, ranging from consolidation of the status quo to a slide into comprehensive chaos.
The first scenario envisions “functional partition,” whereby the STC consolidates its rule and the region engages with it pragmatically. The second warns of “Balkanization,” with Hadramout and Al-Mahra fragmenting into rival cantons driven by resource and identity conflicts following the STC’s failure to manage tribal diversity—creating fertile ground for Al-Qaeda’s return and the expansion of smuggling networks.
Other scenarios include total collapse and Houthi penetration of eastern fronts; a Saudi turn to “coercive containment” through large-scale deployment of Nation’s Shield Forces and the imposition of a federal arrangement to restore balance; or a “managed internationalization” scenario involving an imposed international settlement dividing Yemen into two regions. The report concludes that decision-makers in Yemen and the Gulf now face zero-sum choices: either decisive intervention to reengineer the political and security landscape, or acquiescence to a reality of chaos that could turn eastern Yemen into a chronic source of threats to energy security, maritime navigation, and regional stability for decades to come.