Yemeni Socotra.. Under the UAE Occupation

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Preface:

The United Arab Emirates, the second force in the Saudi-led Arab Coalition against the Houthis, sent military troops to Socotra Island in the Indian Ocean on April 30, 2018 without permission from the internationally-recognized government. The troops - over 300 soldiers, armored personnel carriers and tanks – took control of the island’s port and airport. UAE also deployed military forces to besiege a naval brigade stationed on the island, and prevented Yemeni officials from entering the airport to receive a Saudi delegation that arrived in the island to resolve the dispute between UAE and the government. This event launched a more difficult phase of relations within the Arab Coalition.

The dispute is the latest in a series of disputes between the internationally-recognized authority of President Abdrabbo Mansour Hadi and Abu Dhabi since the first quarter of 2016. The most prominent of these differences was in January 2018 when the National Army was fighting against paramilitary militias financed and trained by the UAE in Aden (the country's interim capital), the matter which reflected relations within the coalition and made it more fragile.

The Socotra Island has an ecological nature that is uncommon and the strangest in the world. Two thirds of creatures and trees on the island are not found anywhere else on the planet. They were added to the World Heritage List in 2008 [[1]]. The island enjoys a strategic location that tempts the colonial military forces. Throughout the modern history, the strategic island was able to avoid the setbacks of attempts to turn it into a military base in order to occupy the "Horn of Africa" ​​and the "Arabian Peninsula." The island is located near the strategic strait (Bab al-Mandab), which makes the military concentration on the island greatly affect the Arabian Peninsula and Horn of Africa, and threatening the global trade.

- Military presence: The UAE military commander (Abu Saif) moved from Mukalla in Hadramout to Socotra and Abu Dhabi opened a military base and registered recruits (5000) of the people of the island within the UAE forces with a salary of 500 dirhams [[4]]. This coincided at the same time with the signing of contracts between the Yemeni government sand UAE organizations for relief works.[[5]] There was no need to recruit and build a military base there as there were no potential security or military threats, and no combat groups.

The purchase of lands: Abu Dhabi started the purchase of lands of Socotra after the removal of "Bahah", and appointed one an Emirati leader called Abu Mubarak Al-Mazroei as governor of the island. Al-Mazroei paid large amounts of money to poor residents to buy their lands for investment purpose. For money and in order to get out of poverty, the poor people sold lands on the island [[6]], although the government has banned the selling of lands on the island and considered it illegal.[[7]]

Relief work: The UAE has justified its presence in Socotra as a relief work after the 2015 hurricane. Residents of the island initially welcomed the UAE relief but they were unhappy with the construction works and UAE bulldozers that targeted the island and uprooted rare trees to build homes for Abu Dhabi elders and political leaders.[[8]] This ultimately pushed the residents to turn to the international community to exert pressure on Abu Dhabi to stop the destruction of the island. The UAE's relief aid to the population of Socotra was not that so much useful but just a media propaganda.[[9]]

During the decades of the Cold War, there were rumors that Yemen - the south - the only Marxist country in the Arab world. It was far from being entangled at the request of the Soviet Union, which was planning to use it as a secret military base.[[12]]

- Economic investment: UAE developers are building foundations for hotels and apartments on the island, and contractors are attacking the natural protectorate of the island and destroying the natural environment to build hotels in the center of the national protectorate in an attempt to replace the island's charming nature with cement blocks, which may pull the island out of the World Heritage List. Expectations say that any continued constructions may destroy the island within 10 years.[[14]]

The reflection on the national security of the region: Abu Dhabi aims to be an influential regional force in the Arabian Peninsula and the Horn of Africa, and since the presence of a military base on the island of Mayyun (Perim) in the Strait of Bab Al-Mandab caused global, local and regional disturbance - which eventually resulted in stopping the establishment of a military base on the island [[15]] and making it a training camp for Yemenis, UAE established a military base in Eritrea and another one in the Republic of Somaliland. UAE sees that it need an advanced military base, primarily affecting Somalia, Djibouti, Yemen and Oman, so UAE considers Socotra, which is close to all these countries, as part of its national security.

According to the Hague Regulations of 1907, the presence of military forces of a state in the territory of a foreign state without any official authorization is considered an occupation of that region [[17]] regardless of the reason for that presence or its way, as long as Abu Dhabi prevented the legitimate power from exercising its authority and influence.

- With the failure of the Saudi authorities to contain the situation, Yemen handed over a briefing to the UN Security Council on May 9, 2018, indicating that the dispute with the UAE threatens "the national sovereignty." Abu Dhabi did not expect the escalation to reach such extent by the internationally-recognized government and that the briefing has been kept as an official document in the Security Council No. (440/2018 / S), which prompted the US State Department to call for strengthening the sovereignty of Yemen and the safety of its territories.[[18]]

- The UAE had spoken in a statement, in response to the presence of its troops, saying that was  a result of a historical relationship between the population of Socotra and the UAE [[19]]. But the government escalation comes to explain the following:

• The United Arab Emirates has already violated Security Council resolution 2216, which emphasizes the preservation of Yemen's territorial integrity, and violated the main objective for which the Saudi-led Arab Coalition has been established. This puts UAE in one  basket with Iran that is accused of violating the same resolution. This issue makes the UAE and its other entities in southern Yemen vulnerable to sanctions from the international community, which does not reflect the image that Abu Dhabi wants to deliver to the community itself as a force that fights terrorism and is abide to the international resolutions as a rising power in the region instead of Saudi Arabia "which bears the blame for tragedies of the war in Yemen", the message that Abu Dhabi wants to convey.

• The Yemeni government and Saudi Arabia that supports it, have been fed up with the way the United Arab Emirates manages the liberated provinces and the construction of new forces and camps in the southern provinces that threaten the future of the Yemeni state, and they believe that this is the only opportunity to make the international community - the new White House- warn against the military presence of the UAE in Yemen.

• The Sultanate of Oman is moving internationally and regionally to stop the UAE presence on Socotra Island. In the later stages, the Gulf States, except the UAE, and the Horn of Africa countries will support the Yemeni government to stop the UAE presence. This move will be based on the Turkish position which considered the UAE presence in Socotra as a threat.[[20]] The American and British condemnations seem to be in the same direction.[[21]]

• Increasing fears of any disintegration within the Arab Coalition due to the growing crisis between Abu Dhabi and the Yemeni government since the events of January 2018[[22]], without achieving any prominent victory against the Houthis or finding a common goal for all parties in the Arab Coalition, as the main goal is to liberate the port of Hodeidah from the Houthis; this is considered to be an attempt by UAE to escape from the main battle that the UAE has been manipulating to get concessions from Saudi Arabia.

• In conjunction with the Socotra crisis, the United States withdrew from the nuclear agreement, and certainly there is no relationship between the two, but the withdrawal will prompt Saudi Arabia to accelerate the victory against the Houthis and control the ports that are believed to be smuggling outlets, as the failure of Tehran's diplomatic efforts to return Washington to the agreement with European pressures may push Iran to send more specific weapons to the Houthis to target Riyadh and threaten the American interests in the region.

The Second Scenario:

Based on the main objectives of the UAE, for which it entered Yemen, to become a regional and international power that controls ports and energy resources [[23]], the most likely scenario is that the UAE may militarily and economically control Socotra Island and  accelerate some measures on the island as follows:

1 - Measures to make a demographic change through the naturalization of the majority of the population of Socotra and the transfer of many of them to live in the UAE and returning them to manage the island, and the transfer of some leaders and soldiers who are loyal to UAE from other southern provinces to do military and security duties in the island.

2 – Launching service and investment projects that may change the features of the island and making media circulation that the island will become tourist and economic destination for the world, another Hong Kong, in order to win the sympathy of the poor people of the southern provinces.

3- Trying to speed up the signing of military and economic contracts with US, Russian, Chinese and other European parties, which may be unofficial, as UAE is an occupying power and a reality on the island.

4 - Providing services to Saudi Arabia related to facilitating the task of liberating Hodeidah. UAE  may also use chaos and assassinations against civilians or military or local leaders or government officials in the island and outside it to distract Yemenis from the goal of restoring the island.

This scenario is likely as the performance of the Yemeni government is weak and its opportunities are limited. It is also likely if Saudi Arabia's position remains weak or supportive or complicit with the UAE. What makes this scenario strong is the UAE occupation of the island in May when the Socotra Island is closed for six months due to sea frenzy and hurricanes. Only big aircrafts can fly to the island while it is difficult to deliver military and food supplies across the sea.

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